As the new year begins, many of us reflect on the changes we want to make and set ambitious resolutions, vowing to stick to them. Yet, despite our best intentions, these resolutions often fade as excitement wanes and life settles back into routine.

Why do so many resolutions fail? The answer lies in underestimating the complexity of real change.

Our brains are wired to simplify, seeking patterns and making assumptions to navigate the world. This tendency often leads us to view ourselves in overly simplistic terms, ignoring the many interconnected factors influencing our goals. For example, losing weight isn’t just about eating less and exercising more—it involves reshaping habits, creating supportive structures, and addressing underlying factors like health conditions or lifestyle constraints.

This is where systems thinking becomes a powerful tool for transformation. By acknowledging the complexity of the systems we operate within—whether personal or global—we can create more realistic and effective plans for change.

As you set your New Year’s goals, it’s the perfect opportunity to embrace systems thinking. Let’s explore one of the most common resolutions—getting in shape—as an example of how a systems perspective can make your goals more actionable, nuanced, and likely to succeed, setting you up to thrive in 2025!

Setting “The Gap”

As an executive and leadership coach, I always start by asking my clients two foundational questions:

• Where are you now?

• Where do you want to be?

Though simple, these questions spark meaningful conversations about the client’s current reality and their desired future. This process sets what I call “the gap”—the space between where they are and where they want to go. Once the gap is clear, we can craft a plan to bridge it.

As you think about your goals for the new year, start by assessing where you are now. For example, if your goal is to get in shape, take stock of your current physical health and fitness.

A useful way to explore any system, including yourself, is through the iceberg model. This model helps you consider not only the visible aspects of a system but also the hidden dynamics beneath the surface. In this way, you can begin to see yourself as a system with layers of complexity.

The Waters Center offers a helpful template for this approach, using the “gap” mindset to map out changes. The current state of the system is placed on the left side of the iceberg, and the desired state on the right. This visualization will be a powerful tool for shaping and exploring your goals as we dive into the process of thriving in the new year!

Download this tool to use as you work through this goal setting exercise.

Let’s start with what’s visible in the system—the ice above the surface in our iceberg model. Focusing on the visible aspects helps bring clarity and specificity to your goals, increasing the likelihood of their success.

Using the example of getting in shape, it’s important to define what “getting in shape” means to you and how you’ll know when you’ve achieved it. Does it involve accomplishing a physical feat, like running a 5K without stopping? Experiencing a physical change, like losing 10 pounds? Or perhaps being disease-free, with all your bloodwork in normal ranges? Getting clear on your desired outcome—and identifying the evidence that will show you’ve reached it—is a powerful first step.

I often encourage starting with the desired state, but you can also begin with your current reality. If your goal is to get in shape, assess your current fitness level. What is your “shape” right now? The more specific your evidence for where you are today, the easier it will be to track your progress and measure success as you move toward your goal.

This process helps you define your “gap” by concretely mapping where you are now and where you want to be by year’s end.

Here are some key questions to ask yourself about the visible aspects of your system:

Current (left side of the iceberg template):

• What’s the current state of the goal area (i.e. health, leadership, relationships, etc.)?

• How do you perceive it, and how is it perceived by others?

• What evidence shows where things stand now?

Desired (right side of the iceberg template):

• What do you truly want to achieve?

• How will you know when you’ve reached your goal?

• What visible evidence will confirm the change you seek?

Look Beneath the Surface of the Current State

Once you’ve identified the gap between where you are now and where you want to be, it’s time to create a plan to bridge that gap. Systems thinking tools are invaluable here, as they help you explore the complex forces shaping both your current reality and your desired state. By adopting a systems lens, you can uncover what’s happening now and design a system that supports achieving your goals.

Start by examining the “current” side of the iceberg template to understand the intricate factors contributing to your present circumstances.

Patterns of Behavior

The first layer beneath the surface of the iceberg involves identifying patterns of behavior. These patterns are often unseen but play a significant role in maintaining the current state. Reflect on trends and recurring behaviors that have brought you to where you are today. This process makes these patterns tangible and actionable.

For example, if your goal is to get in shape, consider:

• What are my patterns of behavior contributing to my current health status?

• What actions am I taking that help or hinder my progress?

• Are there broader trends—like lifestyle or environmental factors—impacting my health?

Structures in the System

Next, delve into the structures that influence your patterns of behavior. Structures can include routines, policies, time management strategies, or even external factors like accessibility and resources. This step also involves identifying any missing structures that may be perpetuating the current state.

For instance, with a goal of getting in shape, you might uncover:

• A lack of dedicated time for exercise.

• Irregular visits to the doctor or barriers to accessing healthcare.

• Limited access to fresh, healthy foods due to a long commute to the grocery store.

• Inadequate insurance coverage for addressing health challenges.

This layer helps you connect the dots between the structures in your life and the behaviors they produce.

Mental Models

The deepest layer of the iceberg is your mental models—the beliefs, assumptions, and narratives you hold about yourself and your goals. These often-unexamined thoughts can greatly impact your progress. This is my favorite layer to explore, as it often reveals hidden limiting beliefs that might be holding you back.

To uncover your mental models, reflect on your thoughts about:

• The visible state of things (the tip of the iceberg).

• The behavior patterns you identified.

• The structures you explored.

For example, when working toward getting in shape, common mental models might include:

• “I don’t have time to work out.”

• “I lack the self-control to eat healthy.”

• “It’s too hard to change.”

These thoughts can subtly undermine your efforts without you realizing it. If you struggle to identify your mental models, ask a trusted friend or partner what they often hear you say about the topic. Their perspective can offer valuable insights into the beliefs driving your behavior.

Spending time with this layer is critical. Shifting your mental models can unlock new possibilities for action and progress. By working through all three layers—patterns of behavior, structures, and mental models—you’ll gain clarity on what has influenced your life and the status quo. From this insight, you’ll begin to see areas that need to shift to make your goal a reality.

Identifying Leverage Actions for Real Change

With a clear understanding of your current state, you can now focus on envisioning what you want to create in the new year. You’ve already defined your goal and how you’ll measure success, but now it’s time to consider the behaviors, structures, and mental models you’ll need to adopt or strengthen to bring your vision to life.

Patterns of Behavior

Start by examining the patterns of behavior section of your template. Ask yourself:

• What actions need to become regular habits to close the gap and achieve your goal?

• How can you shift your current patterns to align with your desired future?

Remember, you can’t keep doing what you’ve always done and expect different results. This is your opportunity to identify the new behaviors required to create lasting change.

For example, if your goal is to get in shape, you might need to establish habits like exercising three times a week, meal prepping on Sundays, or prioritizing sleep. Define the specific patterns that will help you reach your goal.

Structures in the System

Next, move to the structures of the system section. Consider what new systems or supports need to be in place to help you achieve your goal. In our example of getting in shape, this could mean:

• Building an accountability structure, such as partnering with a friend, hiring a trainer, or consulting a nutritionist.

• Scheduling regular doctor visits or creating a meal-planning routine.

• Setting up time blocks in your calendar for workouts.

Ask yourself:

What do I need to accomplish my goal?

What structures can support those needs? If time is a key factor, think about how you can structure your schedule to prioritize your goal. If energy is essential, consider structures that help you rest, recharge, and fuel your body effectively.

Mental Models

Finally, dive into the mental models section—the most transformative part of the iceberg. Reflect on the beliefs you’ll need to cultivate to make your goal a reality. For example, if your goal is to get in shape, you might need to believe:

• “It’s possible for me to be healthy.”

• “My body is capable of change.”

• “I am worth investing time and effort in.”

Even if these beliefs feel out of reach right now, write them down. They represent the mindset shifts you’ll work toward. If believing these things is challenging, seek support from a trusted friend, coach, or mentor who can help reinforce these beliefs until they feel more natural to you.

Connecting the Dots

As you complete your iceberg template, you’ll notice small “gaps” emerging between:

• Current patterns of behavior and the new ones you want to establish.

• Existing structures and the ones you need to create.

• Present beliefs and the ones you’re striving to adopt.

These gaps represent the leverage points for meaningful change. However, identifying them is only the first step. Often, closing these gaps requires support, resources, and consistent effort. With your iceberg model as a guide, you now have a roadmap for creating the systems and mindset shifts necessary to achieve your goals—and thrive in the new year.

Pulling in Your Support

Now you should have a clear vision of what you want to accomplish and a solid understanding of what it will take to get there. As a final step, write around the outside of your iceberg model all the support and resources you’ll need to close the gap. Consider:

• People: Who can support you—friends, mentors, or professionals?

• Services: What external support systems, such as trainers, therapists, or coaches, can you engage?

• Resources: What tools, knowledge, or skills will you need to acquire to ensure your success?

Take action today by sharing your goals with someone you trust. Send an email or text to a friend and invite them for a virtual or in-person coffee chat. During your conversation, share the insights you’ve gained from this exercise and the goals you’re aiming to achieve this year.

I’d also love to support your journey! Feel free to email me at alison@TheThriveDesigner.com to share your reflections or ask for guidance.

Here’s to a year of growth, learning, and meaningful resolutions that lead to real, positive change in your life. Cheers to thriving in 2025!